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香港3月標普PMI降至49.3 七個月來首陷收縮
標普全球公布,經季調後,香港3月PMI由前值所創35個月高位53.3降至49.3,反映商業景氣重回緊縮區間,幅度雖然輕微,卻是去年8月以來首次轉弱。中東戰火衝擊巿場需求,產出與新增業務同時縮減,香港3月營商景氣轉差。整體投入成本與銷售價格的升幅減慢,通脹壓力隨之降溫,但因預期供應商可能大幅加價,企業於是積極採購,繼而推高了庫存水平。就業人數增加,有助減輕積壓...
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香港3月標普PMI降至49.3 七個月來首陷收縮
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標普全球公布,經季調後,香港3月PMI由前值所創35個月高位53.3降至49.3,反映商業景氣重回緊縮區間,幅度雖然輕微,卻是去年8月以來首次轉弱。

中東戰火衝擊巿場需求,產出與新增業務同時縮減,香港3月營商景氣轉差。

整體投入成本與銷售價格的升幅減慢,通脹壓力隨之降溫,但因預期供應商可能大幅加價,企業於是積極採購,繼而推高了庫存水平。就業人數增加,有助減輕積壓;不過,業者對中東戰火的影響表示憂慮,因此對未來一年生產更加看淡。

3月PMI指數下滑,多少反映企業的新增訂單減少,跌幅為9個月以來最大,整體不但顯著,還扭轉了連續5個月的強勁擴張期。受訪業者透露,中東戰事衝擊消費信心、股巿表現和客戶消費意願,進而影響銷情。至於3月的出口貿易,其跌幅亦見相若,把持續四個月的擴張期劃上句號。不過,來自中國內地的訂單需求卻反向而行,目前已連升6個月,惟升幅放緩,整體僅算溫和。

隨着需求轉弱,企業於是轉勢減產,業務跌幅雖然溫和,但就結束去年8月以來的升勢。

產出和新增訂單皆在3月緊縮,惟企業再度擴充人手,就業增長溫和,差不多兩年最大。受訪公司通常指出,為應付近期新接的訂單而增聘僱員。在此情況下,業務積壓減少,乃自去年12月以來首次。

3月的採購活動較上月頻繁,擴張速度為3年以來最快,有關升幅多少與公司開展嶄新項目,以及連續多月的訂單增長有關,但也有多家企業表示,因預期供應商大幅加價,所以添購物料。與此同時,採購庫存的累積幅度為9個月以來最大。至於供應商的交付表現,則有輕微改善,與2月延遲供貨的情況不同。

調查數據反映,私營企業面對的通脹壓力進一步紓緩。值得留意的是,整體成本升幅放緩至去年9月以來最小,而基礎數據也顯示,採購價格的升幅回落至7個月低位,惟員工成本增長則比上月擴大,整體尚算溫和。

私營企業在3月將售價的調整步伐減慢,走勢與整體成本相符,而加幅也是5個月以來最小。不少企業表示,由於競爭激烈,因此加價空間有限。

在評估未來一年業務時,企業比上月更加看淡。值得留意的是,3月的悲觀情緒自去年7月以來最差,多家受訪公司認為,中東戰火對全球造成影響。

標普全球市場財智經濟研究部副總監Annabel Fiddes稱,企業反映,中東戰火衝擊巿場需求,因此香港私營企業3月的產出和新增訂單同時緊縮,有別於今年首兩月的穩健增長。受訪業者透露,客戶信心和消費力道減弱,造成本地與出口的訂單需求受壓,幸來自中國內地的銷售,尚持續擴張。

另一值得鼓舞的是,通脹壓力持續降溫,特別是採購價格,就更加如是。不過,戰爭有可能干擾巿場和供應鏈運作,而多家企業預計供應商將會加價,於是在3月大幅增加採購,進一步補充庫存。此外,上月處於反彈轉角位的商業信心,卻因企業預測客戶需求將於未來數月疲弱,故於3月潛入更深的緊縮區間。(da/w)

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