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M Stanley Expects Tariffs to Intensify US Inflation by 1 ppt in Coming Mths
Morgan Stanley wrote in its report that US import data for May showed an effective tariff rate of 8.3%, which was sharply lower than the broker's base case forecast of low- to ...
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M Stanley Expects Tariffs to Intensify US Inflation by 1 ppt in Coming Mths
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Morgan Stanley wrote in its report that US import data for May showed an effective tariff rate of 8.3%, which was sharply lower than the broker's base case forecast of low- to mid-double digits, but the rate should align with forecasts in June and July.

The broker attributed the lower-than-expected rate to shipping delays, higher-than-expected imports from Mexico and Canada under the USMCA, and a nosedive in sourcing from China.

With higher effective tariff rates expected in June and July, Morgan Stanley said that the transmission of tariffs to US inflation will become more apparent. It forecasted inflation to increase by 1 ppt in the coming months, after which weakening demand will mitigate the effect.
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