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《商品》高盛估算霍爾木茲海峽一旦重開 需半年時間回復88%損失產量
高盛報告指,霍爾木茲海峽一旦重新開放,海灣地區石油產量將相對快速地恢復,但警告油輪運輸限制、油井損壞及各國特有的風險,可能會大幅推遲產量完全恢復至戰前水平的時間。該行估計,本月份波斯灣地區約有每日1,450萬桶原油產能停產,約佔戰前供應量的57%。主要出於預防性考量,而非油田遭受實質損害,支持產量更快恢復的展望。在霍爾木茲海峽能安全且持續地重開,以及未再發生...
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《商品》高盛估算霍爾木茲海峽一旦重開 需半年時間回復88%損失產量
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高盛報告指,霍爾木茲海峽一旦重新開放,海灣地區石油產量將相對快速地恢復,但警告油輪運輸限制、油井損壞及各國特有的風險,可能會大幅推遲產量完全恢復至戰前水平的時間。
該行估計,本月份波斯灣地區約有每日1,450萬桶原油產能停產,約佔戰前供應量的57%。主要出於預防性考量,而非油田遭受實質損害,支持產量更快恢復的展望。在霍爾木茲海峽能安全且持續地重開,以及未再發生針對石油基建攻擊下,產量有望相對地迅速恢復。沙地阿拉伯及阿聯酋閒置產能可支持更快的產能提升,但伊朗與伊拉克則面臨更大的復甦風險。
該行又指,海灣地區現有空置油輪運力已減少約1.3億桶,減幅為50%,這限制海峽重開後出口恢復的進度。油井長期封閉亦可能導致產量下降,特別是在低壓油藏,意味著在恢復全面產量前需進行修井作業。該行警告,封閉時間過長將增加供應受損持續且更難逆轉的風險。
高盛估計,海灣產油量將在海峽重開3個月內回復約七成損失產量,重開6個月後回復至約88%損失產量。(fc/da)
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