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<Research>Daiwa Keeps Conservative Outlook for 4Q; BABA-W, Yili Added to Top Picks
Recommend
61
Positive
89
Negative
36
The seemingly “manageable” US-China tensions have rapidly deteriorated over the past five days, with both countries announcing new technology restrictions or tariffs, Daiwa remarked in a report. The HSI has shed 3.2% over the past two trading days, with the spiral escalation of tensions earlier than the broker’s expectations.

Assuming the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping proceeds as planned, Daiwa expected goodwill gestures from both sides, along with the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in China and potential liquidity support from China's “national team”, to bolster investor sentiment in the short term.

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However, Daiwa upheld a conservative for the rest of 4Q25, as market catalysts will gradually emerge and year-end profit-taking pressure mounts. Therefore, Daiwa continued to advise investors to expand positions in its two major defensive trading threads, namely domestic demand industries and high-dividend strategy, to diversify sector exposure.

Daiwa added Yili (600887.SH) to its top picks as a high-dividend stock, while temporarily removing XIAOMI-W (01810.HK). Following a roughly 13% share price increase over the past two months, the broker also replaced YZJ Shipbuilding with BABA-W (09988.HK) for its strong cloud revenue growth.

The following are Daiwa’s top picks for the China and Hong Kong markets, all rated Buy:

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TENCENT (00700.HK)
BABA-W (09988.HK)
NTES-S (09999.HK)
UBTECH ROBOTICS (09880.HK)
Yili (600887.SH)
AMEC (688012.SH)
CATL (300750.SH)
Hengrui Medicine (600276.SH)
OMNIVISION (603501.SH)
NEWAY (603699.SH)
Ctrip (TCOM.US)
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